Forbes Confirms Marilyn Mann's SANDS Analysis. . . .

Matt Herper at Forbes has a new piece -- with all-new pull quotes from various experts -- on the continuing Vytorin/Zetia sales swoon. Importantly, his reporting, and narrative reasoning, follows closely that of Marilyn Mann's, over at Goozenews, which we featured over the weekend past.

Herper uses the metaphor of a hangover, to declare that the Vytorin headache is far from over. Do go read it all -- but here is a salient snippet:

. . . .In the words of J.P. Morgan analyst Chriss Schott, [SANDS is] "finally a positive data point." It will provide some comfort to doctors prescribing the drugs as national guidelines already suggest: as options for people who can't tolerate more well-proven cholesterol-lowering drugs because of side effects. But it is unlikely to head off the next iceberg that Wall Street is worried about: that insurers will make getting the Vytorin combo pill more expensive during the next year. And it emphasizes how Merck and Schering have failed to do the studies needed to defend their $5 billion-a-year (sales) cholesterol franchise.

William James Howard of Washington Hospital Center, the lead investigator of SANDS, firmly believes his results are a strong counterargument to ENHANCE, which he calls "unfortunately not a sound scientific study." He is an expert in cholesterol who does paid speaking for many drug makers. . . .

Critics like the Washington, D.C.-based cardiologist Allen Taylor say the results from that study [SANDS] were no better than one would expect from Zocor alone.

The Vytorin Web site now warns far more prominently than it did a year ago that "Vytorin has not been shown to reduce heart attacks or strokes more than Zocor alone." That gives insurance companies more than enough reason to raise copays for Vytorin, hurting sales even more. . . .

Just as I've been writing since Spring 2008 -- the next wave of declines, as formularies and third-party payers increase co-pays (or, as is the case now in the States of New York, and Illinois, require that an "administrative pre-approval" be obtained by the doctor's offices, for any reimbursement) for Vytorin -- is now beginning. More to follow.

That is, the swoon we witnessed in 2008 will only continue, or accelerate, from here -- in 2009. Mark my words, on this -- these two drugs are still over-50 percent of Schering's consolidated profitability, in play, here.