Tuesday, November 11, 2008

More Very-Suspicious Schering Research "Math" on Boceprivir, at AASLD


This one comes to us by way of "justpaul", a quite-cogent observer over at Vertex's Yahoo Stock Message Board -- it seems the latest poster, at AASLD, on Schering's SPRINT trial (for its next-generation Hep C candidate, Boceprivir) is sporting some highly implausible "math".

Now, perhaps more importantly, a professor at Harvard is clearly saying that Vertex's Teleprevir will convince FDA of its superior efficacy, and thus likely enjoy at least a two-year US market-lead over Schering's boceprivir:

. . . .I am told by a reasonable source that Professor Chung of Harvard Medical School gave an audio interview with Rodman and Renshaw about AASLD. Based on the 24/28 week results, he would definitely recommend telaprevir over boceprevir. And he was very skeptical of the boceprivir 44/48 week results. He didn't mention math problems but stated that there was no real logical reason for a 4 week lead-in in a 48 week trial to provide much of an advantage and that the 74% number was likely an irreproducible outlier. He felt telaprevir would be approved and have a two-year monopoly.

Second hand info, I admit. If anyone can verify or post a transcript, please do. . . .

UPDATED: Here is at least some confirmation. Wow -- the only surprise there -- is that because it is Schering, there is no surprise. . . there.

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