Friday, October 17, 2008

Schering-Plough (Again!) Lost Share -- in an Expanding U.S. Cholesterol Market, Last Month. . . .


[UPDATED: now we learn that Merck's Cordaptive -- and the THRIVE study -- will rise from the dead -- the "dead" in this case being an FDA non-approvable letter right after Q1 earnings release. . . . Wow! It just gets worse and worse for Schering's joint venture.

10.20.08 AM: Each of Ed Silverman, at Pharmalot, Dr. Peter Rost and the Insider (Jack) at Pharmagossip have now linked this one of mine! Cool!]

September IMS data puts Schering below 11 percent in U.S. market-share -- at 10.9 percent, compared to 11.35 percent in August 2008 -- or a sequential month to month decline of around 500 basis-points [Click the images to enlarge]:


September 2008:

US Cholesterol
Management Market -- 19,923

Total Merck/Scher-
ing-Plough Franchise -- 2,171

VYTORIN 1,202

ZETIA 969

This older graphic conveys a proportionate sense of how U.S. share is shrinking:



So, just as I predicted, the Schering Q3 Earnings Conference Call promises to be rather ugly on Tuesday morning, now. The strategy appears to be get some news out ahead of it, to ease the blow. . . . Yep:

In other news, CEO Hassan appears to have ousted the former head of Organon's Inervet/Animal Health businesses -- reinstating Raul Kohan's leadership of this franchise. . . .

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