Tuesday, October 7, 2008

How Many Billion Roubles Are Spent in Russia, on Drugs, Each Year, Overall?


So -- and, to follow-up on my last post, I decided to figure out just how many billion Russian Roubles of new net income Schering-Plough will need, in order to "fill the gap" in the United States.

Well, then, if we assume Vytorin/Zetia US market share erosion gets no worse in 2008 -- that is, it stays about 30 percent below 2007 levels, for the full year 2008 (and perhaps I am being too generous here, I know) -- Schering will have an Equity Income 2008 "hole" of about $614.7 million on its 2008 income statement (or, 30 percent of the $2.049 billion of 2007 Equity Income it reported on its last Form 10-K).

The Russian Rouble -- thus far in 2008 -- has traded between 23.50 and 26.20 Roubles to the Dollar (it opened 2008 at 24.50 Roubles to the Dollar). Said another way, Schering-Plough will need between 23 and 26 Roubles for EACH US Dollar it is "in the hole". so, Fred's math will never work:



Yep -- Mr. Hassan needs between 16 and 14 BILLION Russian Roubles of Equity Income in 2008 alone. To get that income, he'll likely need three times as much -- in Rouble-denominated sales (very-generously assuming he'll garner 33 percent margin in Russia). . . .



Said another way, he'll need between 48 and 43 billion Roubles of new sales in Russia, to generate the above equity income levels:



Two words, here: "No way!" -- and, "No how".

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

and wait..there's more....

apparently, pfizer figures that Russia (along with Brazil,China and India) are also valuable to focus their interests towards.

So, what if Lipitor was to share the market?