How Many Billion Roubles Are Spent in Russia, on Drugs, Each Year, Overall?

So -- and, to follow-up on my last post, I decided to figure out just how many billion Russian Roubles of new net income Schering-Plough will need, in order to "fill the gap" in the United States.

Well, then, if we assume Vytorin/Zetia US market share erosion gets no worse in 2008 -- that is, it stays about 30 percent below 2007 levels, for the full year 2008 (and perhaps I am being too generous here, I know) -- Schering will have an Equity Income 2008 "hole" of about $614.7 million on its 2008 income statement (or, 30 percent of the $2.049 billion of 2007 Equity Income it reported on its last Form 10-K).

The Russian Rouble -- thus far in 2008 -- has traded between 23.50 and 26.20 Roubles to the Dollar (it opened 2008 at 24.50 Roubles to the Dollar). Said another way, Schering-Plough will need between 23 and 26 Roubles for EACH US Dollar it is "in the hole". so, Fred's math will never work:



Yep -- Mr. Hassan needs between 16 and 14 BILLION Russian Roubles of Equity Income in 2008 alone. To get that income, he'll likely need three times as much -- in Rouble-denominated sales (very-generously assuming he'll garner 33 percent margin in Russia). . . .



Said another way, he'll need between 48 and 43 billion Roubles of new sales in Russia, to generate the above equity income levels:



Two words, here: "No way!" -- and, "No how".