Thursday, September 18, 2008

What did Carrie Cox say, on the day BEFORE she began selling?


I am having a nice back-and-forth with the ever-sharp Salmon, in the comments, here -- about what might have caused the run-up in Schering stock prices from January 1, 2007 to May 1, 2007. . . . do read that, but here is what the Complaint alleges was said by Carrie Cox one day before she began the series of $29 million (gross -- about $11 million, net) liquidations of her options positions -- about Vyotrin's benefits (see pages 28 to 29 of the full complaint -- in 237 page PDF format):

. . . .During Schering’s First Quarter 2007 Earnings Call on April 19, 2007, Hassan stated: “We continue to grow VYTORIN and ZETIA despite the new wave of generics that has recently entered the market. As we have said before, physicians and their patients are following the evolving medical science; evolving medical science that is indicating that lower LDL cholesterol is better. And now we will be extending the core of our cholesterol business into Japan.”

During the call, Defendant Cox added: “At last month's American College of Cardiology meeting, lowering LDL was again validated as the primary target of lipid therapy and with lower clearly better, we believe this plays right into the strength of our cholesterol franchise. Only VYTORIN provides more than a 50% LDL reduction at the usual starting dose and across the dosing range. More than Lipitor and more than Crestor.”. . .

According to Schering's press release, in that First Quarter 2007, Vytorin/Zetia sales grew at an explosive 48 percent (over the comparable First Quarter of 2006); and Equity Income (or profit) from those sales was up a full 21 percent. Wow. That's some mo-jo, right there.

So -- what did she really know? And when did she -- and CEO Fred Hassan -- know it?

That is a very significant part of what this litigation is all about.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Condor,

Thank you. This is very interesting. However timing is everything. You refer to increases since January however from the prices at the beginning of January and mid-march were both in the same range (i.e. $23 - $23.5/share) with some price fluctuation in between. Then all of a sudden around March 16th until the end of April and Carrie sells it just shoots straight up.

Carrie's statement suggests that this increase may have something to do with the American College of Cardiology Meeting. Especially as she continues. I wonder if there could have been any off-label promotion or even pumping of the stock to purchasers somehow based on the ACC meeting information.

Salmon

Anonymous said...

PS

I found the exchange you had over at CafePharma about who brought the case quite interesting.

You should copy that information to your blog.

Salmon

Condor said...

Hey Salmon -- I must have part-timers disease: I don't remember describing who brought the case -- of course, it is a series of individuals, and large public pension fund investors. . . .

Did I really post over on cafepharma about that? Wow. I forgot.

I know I mentioned it here when the lead plaintiffs were selected, back in April 2008. . . . I will go look for that post. . . .

Thanks!

Condor said...

Here is that April post -- setting out just a few of the many large public pension funds that each lost multiple millions of dollars on their Schering investments. . . .

Anonymous said...

Phew! For a moment I thought I made a mistake about Cafepharma. If it's not you then it's someone claiming to be you.

It's under the thread ENHANCE: What Did Carrie Cox Know -- and When Did She Know It?

Now the question is when will the SEC and DOJ jump in?

McCain jumping on the SEC head today for the Wall Street mess may make him start looking around for a way to save face.

Salmon