Tuesday, August 5, 2008

A few quick, semi-random, thoughts. . . .


Odd -- Schering-Plough announces that it has an Olympics tie-in deal (Claritin) all set to go for Opening Ceremonies on Thursday night in Bejing, China -- and Schering stock falls, today.

Is it that Wall Street realizes selling a "clearer breathing" drug, in a city whose air-quality is now worse than London, circa 1845, isn't going to do too much for Schering?

Or, is it that Wall Street is just now fully-grasping at the greater FDA approval-race lead -- and candidate efficacy -- Vertex's Telepravir seems to possess (over the Schering next-gen Hep C Candidate)? I dunno.

OR -- COULD IT BE -- that no matter which company "wins" the next gen Hep C drug candiate "battle", Schering will still lose the "war" -- it will not really help Schering {much}?

Why? Well, because that new next gen Hep C product will simply CANNIBALIZE a fair amount of Schering's current Hep C drug market-share. And that is the best case -- if Schering "wins" -- and is first to market.

If Schering is second (or third!) to market -- it is not just a missed opportunity -- it is an EROSION to Schering's earnings.

Just a few thoughts, here. . . .

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