May 2008 Cholesterol Franchise Scrips -- Flat; MSP Still Losing US Market-Share

The newest Monthly Vytorin/Zetia IMS scrips were just released by Schering-Plough, once again on a back-water page of its website -- with no front page reference, link or mention. Take a look (Source: IMS National Prescription Audit Plus (NPA+), as of June 18, 2008 -- (in Thousands) -- Click to enlarge):



Perhaps the most important development to emerge here, is that the this IMS Monthly data (now on file with the SEC) indicates the overall Cholesterol marketplace in the United States expanded by about 1.3 percent in May 2008 -- but with its essentially flat May 2008 scrips, the MSP Joint Venture effectively lost market-share to competitors' drugs (albeit at a lower rate than in January through April 2008).

So, again, let us, conservatively, I think, assume that it gets no worse than this -- off about 23 percent for the full-year 2008 (while the overall market grows about 1.3 percent in 2008). By my lights, that would make Schering-Plough a $16 stock (see that last link for supporting analysis).

Perhaps the above would explain the sharp NYSE sell-off today -- Schering's common was off about 4 percent at some points during the afternoon, but recovered slightly near the close, to finish off 3.5 percent on the day. There will be no lipstick for this particular pig, come Monday, in my opinion.