Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Pfizer Saw Curency Headwinds Of 3% In Q4; 2% For The Full Year 2013

Merck is highly likely to see just about the same. [Note that I first made the graphic at right in April 2013 -- for Q2 2013 -- and things improved a bit here in the back half of the year, as the dollar weakened a bit, against the Yen and euro.]

I'd expect the fourth quarter sales revenue at Merck, as reported, to be trimmed by something like 2.5 per cent. For the full year of 2013, with a slight improvement shown during Q4, 2013 -- like 2.5 to 3 per cent (full year 2014, give or take). Even so, that's about $1 billion -- vanishing into thin air. More than just notion, that.

Here is a bit -- from the morning's Pfizer press release:
. . . .Reported revenues decreased $3.1 billion, or 6%, which reflects an operational decline of $1.9 billion, or 4%, and the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange of $1.2 billion, or 2%. . . .

Now we wait for February 5, 2014 -- before the NYSE opens that morning -- to see how Merck's year has ended. [Remember here that Pfizer is about a quarter again, larger/bulkier, than Merck, at the annual global sales line.]

But they each operate in almost completely overlapping geographies (overall, 122 countries -- but essentially driven by all the developed world's health care consumption decisions), and in nearly identical proportions inside those geographies. So this Pfizer currencies results data is a pretty accurate "canary in the coal mine," in my estimation. They each hedge to the extent economical and feasible, as well. Nice symmetry, there.

No comments: