So far, the company has been moderately successful with using litigation (and/or the threat of it) to scare off the less-reputable compounders -- but several FDA authorized ones remain on the field, slightly eating away at market share, and the retail price levels. But not a huge deal, as to Lilly's stock price on the NYSE, as it still is the runaway leader in the class in the USA.
And welp, that wraps this series up for me.
[As Abbott / Baxter were not big spenders, I'll simply say that they spent on almost all the same issues they spent on in Q2 2024, just at a slightly decreased rate.]
. . .Issues related to intellectual property protection and market access within current trade negotiations. Canada IP; USMCA implementation; Mexico patent linkage; Special 301; Trade talks: US-Japan, US-China, US-EU, US-UK, US-India, and US-Brazil. . . .
Patient protection; Pharmaceutical supply chain issues and shortages; Drug pricing, coverage, value, access and quality; Transparency; Intellectual property; Health insurance accessibility; Implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" (HR.5376); Prescription drug approval; Affordable Insulin Now Act (S.954/HR.1488), The INSULIN Act; Policy matters related to Artificial Intelligence in health care. . . .
Intellectual property; 340B Program; Medicare & Medicaid prescription drug reimbursement, coverage and value; Implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" (HR.5376); CMS National Coverage Determination on Alzheimer's disease; The INSULIN Act. . . .Multi-lateral threats to IP and the biopharmaceutical industry; Drug importation; Prescription drug value, access and quality; Implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; Domestic manufacturing tax incentives; Expensing of research and development costs; Global minimum tax; Pension and retirement benefit issues; round-tripping. . . .
Pharmaceutical intellectual property issues. . . .
Hospital discounts; 340B program; Prescription drug value, access, quality and compliance with Drug Quality and Safety Act. . . .
Onward, for a cool, breezy bike ride, along the lake, now. . . smile.
नमस्ते
An off topic question for you.....With Moderna's stock price plummeting over the past several months, do you see one of the larger companies considering an acquisition?
ReplyDeleteGreat question, Anon.! -- and no, it is right on topic! We do cover M&A in publico pharma space here -- and the rumors surrounding the same... though candidly, less often than we did when Merck and SGP were the subjects of those rumours... 2008 to 2012.
ReplyDeleteI think the fundamental question is: is Moderna UNDER-valued -- by "Mr. Market" at this point, or is it a fair value correction?
I followed (and covered) Moderna closely when the COVID vaccine race was on -- when it was in the throes of FDA and EU approvals, but kinda' stopped looking -- after I sold at around $240 a share (having bought it at around $40 a share).
Let me make it a project -- to do a deeper dive, on the current components of the Moderna fundamental value equation, and make a guess at whether it will be bought up, as an unduly cheap asset, by one of the true behemoths... perhaps by Wed., given my other time commitments.
Cheers! Great poser!
Okay. Here's my attempt at an answer for you.
ReplyDeletehttps://shearlingsplowed.blogspot.com/2024/11/as-promised-heres-condors-assessment-of.html
With some additional overnight reflection, I would note that if Merck were going to spend perhaps $34 billion to get all of Moderna, it would want closer to immuno-oncology (i.e., higher) margins, on future products. And in candor, that is one of the projects the two companies are working on -- right now.
So... never say never. And the fair value of this stock is around... $85 bucks a share, today (by my lights) -- even as it trades around $42.50 on the NASDAQ, this morning. It's... a buy -- but as ever, your mileage may vary.
Namaste.