The Last 2012 Solar Max Was Relatively Mild, And Late-Arriving. This One, As Reconnects Go -- May Come Early, And Be... Rather Fierce: NCAR

Last solar max, in late 2012. . . was mild and later arriving than predicted. Not so, this time, we are reliably told by the fine scientists at NCAR, the national lab for atmospheric research, in beautiful sunny Boulder Colorado.

The latest forecast off of Table Mesa in Boulder suggests an early arrival of the next solar max, and a more intense one compared to the last, in 2012. Thus "the bright points (at left, in the image at right) mark the travel of magnetic field bands, which wrap around the Sun. When the bands from the northern and southern hemispheres -- which have oppositely charged magnetic fields -- and when they meet at the equator, they mutually annihilate one another leading to a “terminator” event.

These terminators are crucial markers on the Sun’s 22-year clock, [NCAR] says, because they flag the end of a magnetic cycle, along with its corresponding sunspot cycle -- and act as a trigger for the following magnetic cycle to begin. . . ."

As of October 25, NCAR is predicting year end 2023 as the start of this solar max.

In any event, here's a bit of the "pop sci" version media reporting on it:

. . .From a distance, the sun may seem calm and steady. But zoom in, and our home star is actually in a perpetual state of flux, transforming over time from a uniform sea of fire to a chaotic jumble of warped plasma and back again in a recurring cycle.

Every 11 to 12 years, the sun's magnetic field gets tangled up like a ball of tightly wound rubber bands until it eventually snaps and completely flips — turning the north pole into the south pole and vice versa. In the lead-up to this gargantuan reversal, the sun amps up its activity: belching out fiery blobs of plasma, growing dark planet-size spots and emitting streams of powerful radiation. . . .

And that may lead to only spotty cell coverage from time to time -- and play havoc with various airlines' satellite based avionics. Thus, the old school back-ups will likely be in copious use -- by New Year's 2024. Now you know -- onward, grinning -- but an ominous update from the Himalayas, in a few -- next post.

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