A Look Ahead: Year End 2023 Results, At Merck… May Be Guiding Too Low(?)

As we finish the annual "day after" dim sum feast on Cermak. . . . I'll take this moment to note that by December 31, 2023, Rahway will undoubtedly be able to truthfully say it sells the world's most lucrative single therapeutic agent, vastly eclipsing Humira -- at over $23 billion a year. [We should note, of course, that since the below projections come from a company known to Wall Street as a public company for nearly as long as there have been US public companies -- the executives likely shade the guidance to be a little conservative. . . understanding that "missing" by being overly optimistic will be harshly punishing to the stock price, while missing on the low side simply causes a bump up on the NYSE. In sum, Merck's management is unlikely to be too far out over its skis -- all as Elon Musk so often is, as a mere baby in public company land. A big baby, but still. . . a baby.] So, Rahway's year end might be slightly better than the below, when the dust settles.

True, it will have expensed the $5.5 billion, previously disclosed, on the Daiichi Sankyo deal -- and about $100 million on the Caraway M&A deal in the quarter, but no one will even notice, given the hoards of cash being trucked in on pembrolizumab, thus (from the Q3 2023 guidance):

. . .Merck now expects its full-year non-GAAP EPS to be between $1.33 and $1.38, including a negative impact of foreign exchange of approximately 6 percentage points, at mid-October 2023 exchange rates. This revised non-GAAP EPS range reflects the following, which were not previously included in the outlook:

Additional strength in the business of approximately $0.15 per share.

A pretax charge of $5.5 billion, or $1.70 per share, for the collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo.

Estimated expense in the fourth quarter of 2023 of approximately $0.04 per share to advance the ADC assets and finance the transaction with Daiichi Sankyo.

A 1%, or approximately $0.05 per share, incremental negative impact of foreign exchange.

The non-GAAP EPS range excludes acquisition- and divestiture-related costs, costs related to restructuring programs, income and losses from investments in equity securities, and a previously disclosed charge related to settlements with certain plaintiffs in the Zetia antitrust litigation. . . .

Now you know -- do go enjoy the piping hot green tea by the kettle, and the flat noodles, with steamed barbequed pork buns and curry chicken stuffed turnover pastries!

नमस्ते