"Year In Review" Dept.: A Very Good 2022 -- For Both Merck And Lilly; And Clearly A Bad One For Pfizer.

Of all the mega cap pharmaceutical companies -- it has been many years since either Lilly or Merck posted the top returns, overall. But it is also true that both Lilly and Merck manage assets pretty conservatively, never "getting out over their skis", so to speak -- not over-extending in any one promising but as yet undelivered area.

On the other hand, Pfizer had often been the top returner, in the last few -- in those go-go times -- which are now a full year in the rear view mirror, in the overall market.

Thus, unsurprisingly, Pfizer has been known to "over-bet" -- on the come. In this year, that has come about to bite them -- especially in the waning of the most lethal strains of COVID-19, and the leveling off of Pfizer's COVID therapeutics sales. But, if one believes that the stock market will struggle well into 2023, before it recovers (as I do), Merck and Lilly will be better bets than Pfizer.

Here's a bit of it all, from SeekingAlpha / Yahoo Biz:

. . .Merck shareholders have much to celebrate as the company is the best performing large US pharma of 2022 with a return of ~44% this year. . . .

The company was also rumored to be close to buying Seagen for ~$40B, though the deal has yet to materialize.

Merck has also benefited from EPS beats in the first three quarters of the year. . . .

With a year-to-date return of 34%, Eli Lilly had the second-best return of the year.

Perhaps the biggest development for the company was the approval of diabetes medication Mounjaro (tirzepatide) in May. Mounjaro sales are set to surge when the drug gains an additional indication as a weight-loss therapy, which Lilly is pursuing. . . .

Pfizer was the worst performer, down about 10% in 2022. Despite earnings beats in the first three quarters, the company has been hobbled by declining sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and antiviral, Paxlovid. . . .

There you have it. To be clear, all of pharma is a very safe bet, overall, against inflationary times -- as even Pfizer's decline only roughly approximates the erosion in buying power from consumer price inflation in the US in 2022. By comparison, Musk's Tesla is off over 65%. And Bitcoin is off ~68%.

And so, I wish all of you. . . very good cheer, and a wonderful. . . new year!

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