tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4241416962008169508.post604127348489539102..comments2024-03-29T06:40:19.495-04:00Comments on Just A Life Sciences Blog...: One Goldman Sachs Lawyer Makes A Startling Disclosure at Tulane. . . .Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4241416962008169508.post-83733080560015596892009-04-05T17:50:00.000-04:002009-04-05T17:50:00.000-04:00The only thing I'd personally be certain about -- ...The only thing I'd personally be certain about -- is that I wouldn't take Frank's advice -- at least as to how this stock will trade during the pendency of the proposed reverse-merger transaction. [He has almost no experience trading these scenarios -- as his latest posts make manifestly clear.]<BR/><BR/>It should be range-bound in the $20s -- unless (on the downside) JNJ gets a solid shot in on reclaiming Simponi and Remicade rights -- that would hurt merger values; and unless (on the upside) someone decided to pay the $1.25 billion deal-breaker fee -- to make a significantly higher bid for all of Schering-Plough.<BR/><BR/>If one of the above two scenarios come to pass, I think SGP might well fall below $20 (in the former), or rise slightly above $30 (in the latter).<BR/><BR/>As to when, or whether, JNJ surfaces, who knows? But I think a JNJ challenge is far more likely than a third-party "<I>topping offer</I>", for all of Schering, outright.<BR/><BR/>That said, I do think if you think about the values <A HREF="http://shearlingsplowed.blogspot.com/2009/03/proposal-for-understanding-and-tracking.html" REL="nofollow">in this way</A> (see linked post),<BR/>you might be able to mitigate the risk of getting surprised on your downside exposure.<BR/><BR/>NamasteCondorhttp://shearlingsplowed.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4241416962008169508.post-79714148196117660722009-04-05T17:29:00.000-04:002009-04-05T17:29:00.000-04:00Hey Rain guy. Thanks for getting back to me. I ask...Hey Rain guy. Thanks for getting back to me. I asked Frank but he didn't answer me,I mentioned I still have 1000 shares of Schering left from when I worked for them and feel I should hold on to them because when all the dust is cleared the stock price will be higher.Do you think Schering will just trade in the 20s range? Should I take my profir now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4241416962008169508.post-54159927284018850012009-04-04T17:21:00.000-04:002009-04-04T17:21:00.000-04:00I honestly have no idea.There are too many unknown...I honestly have no idea.<BR/><BR/>There are too many unknowns -- most importantly, will J&J reclaim the Remicade and Simponi rights?<BR/><BR/>I'd be surprised if it all came off without a hitch. . . .<BR/><BR/>But beyond that, I can't really guess.<BR/><BR/>Sorry, but thanks for the comment!<BR/><BR/>NamasteCondorhttp://shearlingsplowed.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4241416962008169508.post-88677029305358066722009-04-04T15:53:00.000-04:002009-04-04T15:53:00.000-04:00Hey rain guy. I have followed you and frank argue ...Hey rain guy. I have followed you and frank argue for a long time,I was fortunate to sale most of my Claritin stock options in $55range 10 years ago. I still have 1,000 shares and wonder what you think the value of the shares will be when the Schering-Merck deal is final.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com